Urban Planning Failures and the Spatial Dynamics of Building Collapse in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

Rapid urbanisation and weak regulatory enforcement have intensified the incidence of building collapse in Lagos, posing significant threats to urban health and safety. This study examines the spatial dynamics, socio-economic drivers, and public health implications of building collapse across 17 Local Government Areas between 2018 and 2022. A mixed-method approach integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and survey data from 429stakeholders was employed. Spatial analysis using the Average Nearest Neighbour (ANN) revealed a statistically significant clustered pattern of collapse incidents (z= -4.1521; p < 0.01), confirming non-random distribution. High-risk concentrations were identified in Lagos Island, Mushin, Ebute-Meta, and Ikeja areas characterised by high population density (exceeding 20,000 persons/km2), informal construction, and limited regulatory oversight. Approximately 27% of surveyed buildings were non-compliant with the 2019 Lagos State Building Control Regulations, while structures aged 30 – 59 years dominated vulnerable zones. Survey findings indicate widespread awareness (95.5%) of collapse incidents, with 50.9% of respondents directly experiencing or witnessing events. Reported impacts included fatalities (79.7%), property loss (70.4%), physical injuries (63.3%), displacement (56.6%), and psychological distress (52.1%). ANOVA results confirmed significant spatial variation in perceived health impacts (p < 0.05) and government response effectiveness (p<0.05). Although 79.7% acknowledged existing safety policies, only 38.4% considered enforcement effective. The findings demonstrate that building collapse in Lagos is both a spatially clustered infrastructural failure and a public health crisis, underscoring the need for strengthened regulatory enforcement, spatial risk mapping, and health-sensitive urban planning
interventions.